Kalshi Market Shift in California’s 6th District Sees Lauren Babb Tomlinson Odds Double Overnight
Prediction Market Volatility Hits California Congressional Race as Candidate Odds Swing Sharply
Among economists and financial media, there is a saying about using the Dow Jones Industrial Average, or stock markets in general, as a gauge of economic health: “The stock market is not the economy.”
The same can increasingly be said about political prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. While supporters argue these markets can provide insight into political momentum, critics contend they are vulnerable to manipulation, thin trading volumes, and insider-driven betting activity.
Nonetheless, they remain a closely watched gauge of political sentiment and how observers are handicapping races ahead of Election Day. One race we have been following closely is the battle to finish in the top two in California’s 6th Congressional District primary on June 2.
A new poll conducted by EMC Research appears to have triggered significant movement in the Kalshi prediction market. The survey of likely voters showed Democrat Richard Pan leading the Democratic field with 18 percent support, ahead of fellow Democrats Thien Ho at 12 percent and Lauren Babb Tomlinson at 11 percent. Independent Rep. Kevin Kiley led the overall field with 36 percent.
The EMC Research polling reinforced growing speculation that Pan has emerged as the Democrat most likely to advance to the November general election against Kiley. That apparent shift in perception may explain the dramatic swings involving Ho and Babb Tomlinson on the Kalshi platform over the last 48 hours.
As we reported Saturday, Ho — who had been locked in a back-and-forth battle with Pan on the Kalshi platform — experienced a steep decline in his odds. This morning brought another surprising development involving Babb Tomlinson, one of the five Democratic candidates competing for a top-two finish.
On Saturday, the Kalshi market gave Babb Tomlinson a 12.5 percent chance of finishing in the top two. As of 8 a.m. today, her odds had more than doubled to 26 percent. See graph below.
Babb Tomlinson’s rise appears to have come largely at Ho’s expense. Ho dropped from 40.7 percent Saturday evening to 22.5 percent this morning, a dramatic reversal that coincided with the growing perception among traders that Pan has emerged as the strongest Democratic contender following release of the EMC Research poll.
Since Saturday evening, trading volume in the market has also increased, growing from $18,992 to $21,370, suggesting heightened interest from political observers and bettors reacting to the new polling dynamics in the race.
