DCCC Endorsement Reshapes California CD-22 Race as Progressive Randy Villegas Battles Jasmeet Bains

Even though California's 22nd and 7th Congressional Districts do not share many common traits, they do share one thing - viable progressive Democratic candidates. In the Sacramento area, in the 7th District, it is Mai Vang, and in the 22nd District, it is Randy Villegas.

In the 22nd District, Villegas and Democratic California Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains are running in the June primary to unseat incumbent Republican David Valadao, who is expected to advance to the November general election.

The race between Villegas and Bains, and between Matsui and Vang, is mirroring the nationwide sentiment and angst of younger, more progressive Democratic voters as they seek to wrest control from the establishment Democratic machinery.

Where the CA22 race stands

According to a recent report from the polling organization Data For Progress, Valadao leads with 44 percent, followed by Villegas and Bains with 25 and 21 percent, respectively.

As their name suggests, Data For Progress is described by Google Gemini as being "considered a generally reliable, though openly progressive-leaning, polling firm. It has earned a reputation for accuracy, often ranking among the top pollsters in independent evaluations for its high-profile election polling, even though it frequently utilizes nonprobability, online sampling methods rather than traditional, probability-based phone polling."

The last event that moved the race between Bains and Villegas, at least on the Kalshi prediction market, was the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) endorsement of Bains. The DCCC is considered part of the Democratic establishment and recruits candidates who adhere to party orthodoxy.

With the DCCC endorsement, Villegas, who at one point in late March led Bains with bettors, moved from a 30 percent advantage to a 30 percent disadvantage. Since Villegas' big drop after the DCCC endorsement announcement, in recent days, Bains' betting advantage dropped to 14 percent, with 59 percent to Villegas' 45 percent.

Given that Vang and Matsui are both expected to advance to the general election, there has been scant polling data in the public domain. Neither campaign has released internal data, though Vang has said they are close to Matsui in polling, and the Kalshi prediction market gives Matsui a 92 percent chance of a first-place finish.

As we have reported, we will monitor these prediction markets, especially the 22nd and 6th districts, to see how accurate their predictions are. The prediction accuracy in the primary in those two districts could serve as a guide to the eventual Matsui-Vang showdown.

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