Poll Shows Pan Leading Democratic Field in California’s 6th Congressional District Race, With Ho and Babb Tomlinson Battling for Position

A new poll of likely June 2026 primary voters in California’s 6th Congressional District shows former state Sen. Richard Pan holding a narrow lead among Democratic candidates, while Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho and women’s health executive Lauren Babb Tomlinson remain locked in a competitive race for second place among Democrats.

The EMC Research survey (see survey document below), conducted May 3 through May 6 among 400 likely voters, found independent incumbent Kevin Kiley leading the overall field with 36 percent support in the initial ballot test. Pan followed with 18 percent, while Ho received 12 percent and Babb Tomlinson 11 percent.

Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates receiving the most votes in June advance to the November general election regardless of party affiliation. It was not revealed if the research was conducted by any of the candidates.

The poll suggests Kiley appears well-positioned to secure one of those two spots, while Democrats remain divided among several candidates. Although Pan led the Democratic field, the survey showed relatively small gaps separating him from Ho and Babb Tomlinson, particularly after voters were exposed to positive and negative messaging about the candidates.

Pan, a physician and public health advocate, posted the strongest favorability numbers among the three leading Democrats. Before voters were presented campaign biographies, Pan held a 37 percent favorable and 30 percent unfavorable rating.

Ho registered a 40 percent favorable and 34 percent unfavorable rating, while Babb Tomlinson was less known, with 55 percent of respondents saying they had never heard of her.

After respondents read positive biographies about the candidates, Pan and Babb Tomlinson both improved their standing. Pan’s favorability increased to 51 percent favorable and 48 percent unfavorable, while Babb Tomlinson climbed from 26 percent favorable initially to 51 percent favorable after voters read messaging emphasizing her reproductive rights advocacy and endorsements from Planned Parenthood and EMILY’s List.

Ho’s image also improved after voters were told about his background as a Vietnamese refugee and prosecutor in the Golden State Killer case. His favorability rose to an even 50 percent favorable and 50 percent unfavorable.

However, the poll also indicated vulnerabilities for all three Democratic contenders.

Negative messaging aimed at Ho — highlighting his previous Republican registration and donations from Republican contributors — tested as the most persuasive attack among the Democratic candidates surveyed, earning a 4.8 mean score on a seven-point scale.

An attack on Pan portraying him as a “career politician” tied to pharmaceutical companies and Chevron also resonated with respondents, earning a 4.7 mean score.

Babb Tomlinson faced criticism centered on her lack of elected office experience, with respondents giving that message a 4.2 mean score.

By the end of the survey, after voters had been exposed to both favorable and unfavorable campaign messages, Pan and Babb Tomlinson ended tied at 17 percent support, while Ho dropped to 7 percent. Kiley remained dominant at 39 percent.

The results suggest Democratic voters in the Sacramento-area district remain fluid less than a month before the June primary, with Pan benefiting from higher name recognition but Babb Tomlinson showing potential movement after voters learned more about her candidacy.

The poll also highlighted broader voter dissatisfaction. Sixty percent of respondents said California is “pretty seriously off on the wrong track,” while only 39 percent said the state is headed in the right direction.

The survey sample included 44 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 20 percent no-party-preference or other voters. Fifty-two percent said they voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, compared with 44 percent who supported President Donald Trump.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.