What a difference a week makes: Kalshi market flips in Matsui-Vang race
While there has been rightful criticism of prediction markets from many elected officials, short of releasing internal polling data - what better way to gauge voter sentiment
As we have been doing for sometime now, in the absence of polling data, Elk Grove News has been monitor the Kalshi Prediction Market to monitor bettor's sentiment on the Doris Matsui - Mai Vang race for California's 7th Congressional District.
Following the Aug. 27 debate between the two Democratic candidates, the Kalshi market moved significantly in Matsui's favor. In our analysis, based solely on post-debate price movement, not actual performance during the debate, Elk Grove News declared, with some qualifications, that Ms. Matsui "won" the debate, at least from the perspective of people placing wagers.
Interestingly, Matsui's campaign seized on our paper-napkin analysis and broadcast our victory story in a fundraising letter. Below is a portion of that email.
Notwithstanding Matsui's declaration that "even the pro-Mai Vang EGN had to admit that Doris won the debate..." we suppose any declaration, even from a perceived opponent, is something, anything to seize upon. After all, most polticians are masters at the science of deflection and redirection.
Not surprisingly, as we have seen for several months, the Kalshi market is not static. Since last week, when Matsui had a clear advantage, we have seen a reversal.
As of 9 a.m. today, Ms. Vang now leads Matsui 57 to 49%. This is almost the same gap Matsui had over Vang at this time last week.
Of note, wagers in this market now total $23,304 versus $21,989 at this time last week. Put another way, especially when compared to other competitive congressional races with large wager pools, the pool has not significantly grown, so a few wagers from either side can influence the market.
While there has been rightful criticism of prediction markets from many elected officials, short of releasing internal polling data - which we doubt either campaign will do short of some dramatic movement - what better way to gauge voter sentiment than by monitoring people placing wagers based on what should be objective measures to enrich themselves?
On a final note, we also invite both campaigns, if they are so inclined, to individual podcast interviews. Each candidate will be interviewed separately with the same battery of questions, with slight variations based on whether they are the incumbent or challenger.
We don't expect the campaigns to accept the invitations, but if they are interested, they know where to reply.
