New Poll Shows Mai Vang Closing Gap With Doris Matsui in CA-07 Primary as Challenger Gains Momentum Among Democrats

A newly released internal poll from Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang’s campaign suggests the challenger is gaining ground on longtime incumbent Doris Matsui in California’s 7th Congressional District, though the veteran lawmaker retains significant structural advantages heading into the June 2 primary.

According to the survey conducted by Upswing Research & Strategy from March 17 to 23, Vang trails Matsui by 11 percentage points among likely primary voters in an initial ballot test, 28 to 17 percent, with 24 percent undecided. Among Democratic voters, the gap narrows to seven points, 41 to 34 percent.

However, the poll found that after voters were presented with information about both candidates, the race tightened considerably. Vang and Matsui were tied at 27 percent among all likely voters, while Vang led 51 to 34 percent among Democratic voters.

The data also highlighted a key dynamic in the race: Matsui’s long tenure has given her broad name recognition, while Vang remains less known but has room to grow.

In a statement accompanying the release, Vang campaign manager Nairka Treviño Muller framed the results as evidence of momentum.

“This is a competitive race because Sacramento families want leaders like Mai who actually deliver for them, not billionaires or special interests,” Muller said. “Mai Vang’s message is breaking through… this is a people-powered campaign.”

The poll surveyed 400 likely primary voters using a mix of phone and text-to-web methods and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Matsui’s campaign has not publicly released its own polling data. However, campaign materials shared with supporters portray the incumbent as being in a “commanding position” heading into the primary, citing her fundraising strength, endorsements, and decades-long record in office.

According to that memo, Matsui raised more than $560,000 in the first quarter of the year and maintains over $1 million in cash on hand, giving her a substantial financial advantage over her rivals.

The contrast underscores the broader dynamics of the race: a well-funded incumbent with deep institutional support versus a challenger seeking to capitalize on lower initial name recognition but potential voter movement once introduced.

While the Vang campaign’s poll points to a tightening contest, independent verification remains limited, and such internal surveys often reflect favorable assumptions for the sponsoring campaign.

Nonetheless, the data suggests that in a crowded top-two primary, shifts among Democratic voters could prove decisive in determining which candidates advance to the general election.