California's Diverse Population Isn't Voting: White, 65+ Voters Shaping CA-06 and CA-07 Election Outcomes

California and its cities like Elk Grove are often celebrated as one of America's most diverse states. The state is a place where no single racial group holds a majority and where younger generations are thought to be transforming the political landscape.

But with just days remaining before voting concludes in the June 2 primary election, the electorate that is actually casting ballots looks very different.

Political Data Inc.'s latest ballot return reports for California's 6th and 7th Congressional Districts show that White voters and voters age 65 and older are participating at substantially higher rates than younger Californians and most racial minority groups. See graphs below.

If the election were held based solely on ballots returned through May 29, the voters determining which congressional candidates advance to the November general election would be disproportionately older and White.

That reality could have important implications in two of the Sacramento region's most closely watched congressional contests.

In the 7th Congressional District, which includes Elk Grove and much of Sacramento County, overall turnout stood at 17.7 percent. Among voters age 65 and older, however, turnout had reached 35.8 percent.

By comparison, turnout among voters ages 18 to 34 was only 6.6 percent. Voters 65 and older accounted for 55 percent of all ballots returned despite representing only 29 percent of registered voters.

The pattern is nearly identical in the neighboring 6th Congressional District. Overall turnout was 16.7 percent, while turnout among voters 65 and older reached 35.7 percent.

Younger voters ages 18 to 34 posted a turnout rate of just 6.0 percent. As of May 29, voters 65 and older represented 52.8 percent of ballots returned while accounting for only 24.7 percent of registered voters.

Race and ethnicity reveal similar disparities.

In the 7th District, White voters had returned ballots at a 20.1 percent rate compared with 12.0 percent among Latinos, 16.0 percent among Asians and 15.6 percent among Black voters. White voters represented 73.4 percent of ballots returned despite comprising 64.8 percent of registered voters.

The imbalance is even more pronounced in the 6th District. White voters posted an 18.2 percent turnout rate compared with 11.9 percent among Latinos, 16.6 percent among Asians and 13.8 percent among Black voters. White voters accounted for 80.2 percent of ballots returned while representing 73.8 percent of registered voters.

None of this guarantees a particular election outcome.

California's vote-by-mail system means a large number of ballots can arrive in the final days before Election Day. Younger voters historically tend to vote later than older voters, and turnout patterns can shift significantly during the closing weekend of a campaign.

Still, the numbers underscore a recurring challenge in California politics: the state's electorate often looks far less diverse than its population.

Political scientists have long noted that older voters participate more consistently than younger voters. Likewise, White voters generally vote at higher rates than many minority groups.

While voting behavior varies considerably within every demographic category, notwithstanding the growing unpopularity of Donald Trump, older electorates often tend to be more moderate or conservative than younger electorates, particularly on economic and social issues.

The result is that campaigns frequently tailor their messaging toward the voters most likely to cast ballots rather than toward the broader population.

With competitive races unfolding in both the 6th and 7th Congressional Districts, the next two days could determine whether younger voters and underrepresented communities narrow the participation gap — or whether the candidates advancing to November are chosen primarily by an electorate dominated by older White voters.

As of May 29, the latter scenario appears far more likely.