California Primary 2026: Prediction Markets Point to Likely Advancers in Sacramento’s Key U.S. House Races
Prediction markets can indicate which candidates, besides the incumbent, are likely to advance
Voting in California's 2026 primary ends in less than a week. Among the elections of interest in the Elk Grove and Sacramento region are the contests for the three districts that represent the region in the U.S. House of Representatives - the 3rd, 6th, and 7th districts.
For all three districts, no recent polling data has been released. Not surprisingly, the three candidates expected to advance are the incumbents.
They included Ami Bera, who is running for the 3rd District and currently represents the 6th; Kevin Kiley, who is running in the 6th District and represents the 3rd; and Doris Matsui, who is seeking reelection in the 7th District.
As we have previously reported, prediction markets can indicate which candidates besides the incumbent are likely to advance.
3rd District
Even with the district switch, Democratic Rep. Ami Bera is expected to advance easily. Kalshi wagers indicate Republican Robb Tucker is favored with a 76 percent chance to finish in the top two amongst the nine candidates.
6th District
With Proposition 50 redistricting, Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley was going to face a difficult reelection regardless of where he sought his third term. After Bera quickly switched to the 3rd District after Proposition 50 was approved, Kiley, who waited until the filing deadline, decided to run in the 6th District.
As the incumbent and only Republican of stature in the race, Kiley is expected to finish first in the primary. Kalshi currently shows Democrat Richard Pan as the candidate most likely to take the other two top positions, with a 62 percent chance.
In this closely watched primary, two prominent Democrats are expected to advance. Kalshi gives Matsui a 95 percent chance of advancing, while Mai Vang has an 81 percent chance.
The wildcard in this race is the Republican Zacharian Wooden, who Kalshi predicts has a 14 percent chance of finishing in the top two. The Vang campaign has accused Matsui of promoting Wooden to knock Vang out of the top two and virtually assure her of an easy reelection in November should she finish in the top two.
Of course, that strategy has a small chance of backfiring on Matsui. It is conceivable that Vang, who has aggressively pursued voters with an extensive network of volunteers, canvassers, and phone bankers, could get more votes than Mastui.
If Wooden attracts enough Republicans, and especially independents, away from Mastui, she could finish in third place. While that scenario is unlikely, given the traditional low turnout of Democratic voters in primaries, Matsui's campaign could experience unintended consequences if, in fact, they are promoting Wooden and the recent Vang pledge-of-allegiance controversy.
Regardless, it will be noteworthy to see how closely these prediction markets align with the results of the primary election
