When the Polls Turn Against the Party: Vigor vs. Complacency in the Vang–Matsui Contest

California's 7th Congressional District is not typically considered a battleground. It is solidly blue, and its Democratic incumbent, Congresswoman Doris Matsui, has long commanded the apparatus of party support, fundraising muscle, and institutional backing.

But the political tides may be shifting under her. The emergence of upstart Democratic Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang as a challenger must now be understood in the context of a deeper crisis - declining public confidence in Congressional Democrats.

A new NPR/Marist poll released today delivers a stark warning to establishment Democrats like Matsui: only 26 percent of registered voters approve of how Democrats in Congress are performing, while 64 percent disapprove. That includes just 42 percent of Democrats approving, meaning that even within her own party, the borderlines of loyalty are eroding.

Ms. Matsui should not view this as a distant national trend, but a direct threat — especially to long-term incumbents like her who have not sufficiently energized their base, especially since Donald Trump again assumed the presidency this year. In short, Matsui is facing an environment in which her party brand is increasingly toxic from within, a peril no amount of money or establishment endorsements can fully inoculate against.

There is no denying that Matsui has the formidable advantage of incumbency. She has years of relationships with the Washington D.C. donor class, deep ties into the Democratic Party machinery in California, and an unblemished Democratic voting record.

In a normal cycle, a challenger with less financial backing and institutional reach would struggle to make traction. Matsui has never faced a serious challenger since winning office in a 2005 special election.

Yet under California's top-two primary system, the rules create a unique opening. If Vang can consolidate enough support — especially among younger voters, people of color, and especially disaffected Democrats — she could force a general election showdown in the heavily Democratic district.

The key for Vang is turning out young voters who rarely show up in primaries. Given the climate of disillusionment revealed by the Marist poll, Vang has a window of opportunity.

She can cast herself not as a fringe insurgent but as a corrective: someone who can rebuild trust and reforge a link between voters and their representatives. She can say, in effect, "that the problem is not that Democrats are wrong on policy, but that too many have lost touch and lack the vigor to oppose MAGA policies."

Although we doubt Vang will raise the 40-plus age difference between her and Matsui, it will be implied by supporters. How many times were there complaints about the late Senator Diane Feinstein and Joe Biden being too old to govern from within the Democratic base?

If Vang mobilizes the kind of youth-driven "get out the vote" operation that has enabled other insurgencies, she may convert latent anger into real votes.

Matsui, for her part, cannot afford to be complacent. Even with more money, she will need to run a campaign that addresses community concerns — especially among underserved neighborhoods and underrepresented groups that may feel overlooked by Washington.

Otherwise, she risks underestimating Vang's potential.

Because both Matsui and Vang are women of color, observers might be tempted to cast this primary along racial or ethnic lines. However, that framing would overlook the actual theme for many Democratic primary voters - vigor versus complacency.

Vang's challenge is to harness the votes of those dissatisfied with the status quo and deliver anti-MAGA messages that many younger progressive Democrats have been clamoring for. Conversely, Matsui must avoid relying solely on her voting record and assuming that her long tenure grants her deference.

The poll suggests that many Democrats are already growing disillusioned with the party as a whole. Matsui's message must do more than remind people that she is "one of them" and has represented voters for over 20 years; she must actively demonstrate, at campaign events, and, heaven forbid, through door-to-door campaigning or town hall meetings, that she is actively listening and responding.

The Marist poll's numbers should alarm establishment Democrats. The structural advantages — money, endorsements, institutional backing — remain significant, but they may no longer guarantee immunity for long-term incumbents like Matsui. A disciplined, well-targeted campaign that brings out new voices could break through for candidates like Vang, even in the face of Matsui's gargantuan campaign war chest.