Now Portraying Himself as a Moderate, What Version of Rep. Kevin Kiley Will Prevail?

A combination of the weakening economy, stubborn inflation, the pending expiration of Affordable Care Act tax subsidies, which are expected to substantially increase health care insurance premiums for tens of millions of Americans, and the increasing unpopularity of President Donald Trump's handling of the economy is a toxic mixture for many Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives. 

With mid-term elections less than one year away, many Republicans are making moves to distance themselves from the Trump administration to save their own political hide next November. One of those Republican representatives scrambling to recast themselves as a moderate is Congressman Kevin Kiley (CA 3rd District).

In that regard, Kiley scored a victory yesterday in a CBS News story titled House won't vote on health care tax credit extension, angering GOP moderates. One of the so-called moderates quoted in the story was Kiley, who told CBS News "We waited until the very end of the year to just kind of hastily throw together some narrow package to try to make it look like something's being done about health care when this bill is likely not going to become law and it doesn't address the immediate crisis in front of us, or 22 million people."

This drift to the center for Kiley is the direct result of California's voter-approved Proposition 50, which specifically targeted the 3rd Congressional District. The redrawn District, which now has a Democratic voter registration advantage and has attracted two high-profile Democratic candidates, Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho and former State Senator and Assemblymember Dr. Richard Pan, suddenly makes Kiley vulnerable.

In fact, Kiley is so vulnerable in the 3rd District that he has not declared which District he will seek reelection in. It is possible Kiley could challenge fellow Republican Rep. Tom McClintock for California's 5th District, which continues to have a Republican registration advantage.

Regardless of which district Kiley seeks reelection in, when it became apparent that Proposition 50 would be approved, Kiley began moving to the center. Since then, Mr. Kiley has appeared on MSNOW, CNN, and NPR - outlets that, before the enactment of Proposition 50, were antithetical to conservatives.

In a sense, Kiley, with his stances on the ACA subsidies, the release of the Epstein files (he was a relatively early Republican supporter of their disclosure), and a proposed but not brought-to-a-vote national ban on gerrymandering, appears to be moving towards political moderation.

But how much of this is an act of political self-preservation?

First, it should not be discounted that when Kiley ran for Congress in 2022, he received Donald Trump's endorsement over former Sacramento County Sheriff and one-time Congressional candidate and arch-conservative Republican Scott Jones. At the time, Trump said Kiley would be "a MAGA champion in Congress," and his voting record reflects support of the Trump agenda (see video below).

"No one has fought Gavin Newsom harder than Kevin. He doesn't wait for the fight, like the do-nothing RINOs who have watched California get absolutely destroyed by the radical maniacs in Sacramento," Trump said in his endorsement statement.

Naturally, Kiley's drift away from MAGA poltics even before Proposition 50 was approved has not gone unnoticed. In a November 1 social media post by Placer County Democratic Party titled "Do not be fooled by Rep. Kevin Kiley. WE REPEAT: do not be fooled by Kevin Kiley," the political group noted, "Kiley is deliberately interviewing with the New York Times and other outlets to rebrand himself as more moderate. His MAGA voting record tells a different story."

According to the Place County Democrats, Kiley voted affirmatively for the following:     

• The OBBB (One Big Beautiful Bill) Act, which will cause millions of people to lose their healthcare
• The OBBB Act, which will cut SNAP funding by $186,000,000,000.
• The SAVE Act, which tries to restrict American citizens from voting, particularly women who've changed their names.
• The Border Act, which has helped expedite violent mass deportations
• Extensively against reproductive freedom while in the California legislature

The one hope for Kiley is the California Republican Party lawsuit currently underway seeking to reverse Proposition 50. Should the plaintiffs in that lawsuit prevail and California Congressional maps revert to their former configurations, Kiley will undoubtedly revert to his former conservative stances.

Notwithstanding the Proposition lawsuit, should Kiley decide to run for the 3rd District, there is a good chance he will face Democratic Sacramento District Attorney Thien Ho, who has legitimate law-and-order and centrist credentials. If, however, Kiley decides to confront fellow conservative Republican McClintock, he'll have to swing back to the right.

In a short time, Kiley will have to decide where he will run. At that time, Kiley will reveal his true political identity.