Marist Poll on New Ideas Adds Context to Matsui–Vang Race

In the heated race for California's 7th District between Rep. Doris Matsui and fellow Democrat Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, reliable polling has been scant. Typically, campaigns release polling only when it's favorable.

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To date, neither campaign has released any internal polling. This probably suggests the race is tight.

While the Kalshi prediction market continues to show Matsui leading Vang (see graphic below), today reliable data has been released that can be applied to this race. That data comes from the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.

Among its findings, respondents were asked:

Thinking about your vote this November, do you think it is more important to vote for:

• Candidates with experience who have a proven record, or
• Candidates with new ideas who will bring about change

Although both candidates share common ground on several issues, one pillar of the race has been this new-versus-old divide. Matsui and her Democratic establishment supporters have argued that her 20-plus years of service are vital to the district's needs, while Vang supporters have asserted that the time has come for new ideas and leadership.

In a positive omen for the Vang campaign, 38% of respondents favored experience, while 56% agreed it was more important to have candidates iwth new ideas.

The full breakdown is below.

Democratic and Independent voters overwhelmingly agree with the message at 73 and 65%, respectively. Republican voters, whom Democrat Matsui may try to tap, have 64% who value experience and 30% who prioritize new ideas.

This is a national poll, and the results for the 7th district are likely to differ. Nonetheless, this poll, along with Vang's first-place finish in the June primary and the national trend of vote-the-establishment-bums-out among many Democratic voters, should be viewed as a favorable gauge of Vang's campaign to unseat Matsui.

Now, if we could get some internal polling from the campaigns!