Kevin Kiley's Political Hail Mary

Since Proposition 50 first surfaced last year, Republican Congressman Kevin Kiley has known his political career was under threat. After the maps were drawn and California voters approved the proposal, Kiely has been actively plotting a strategy for his political self-preservation.

Kiley bemoaned redistricting in Texas, which acted as a catalyst for Proposition 50. The congressman, early on, said he would support the release of the controversial Epstein files, called for federal legislation to ban mid-decade redistricting, and criticized Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson for closing Congress during last year's government shutdown.

For good measure, Kiley, a MAGA Republican who received a crucial endorsement from Donald Trump in 2022 during his initial run for Congress, tried to move to the center. As part of this effort, he appeared on CNN and, more surprisingly, MSNOW to appear moderate and less MAGA.

Once the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear a lawsuit seeking to overturn Proposition 50, Kiley veered back to the far right. Before settling to run in the newly configured 6th Congressional District earlier this week, Kiley toyed with challenging fellow Republican Tom McClintock for the safe Republican 5th District.

With yesterday's filing deadline for the June 2 primary election, Kiley pulled another move from his bag of tricks. Instead of running as a Republican, Kiley is now running as a No Party Preference (independent).

"As an elected representative, I have always seen my role as an independent voice for my community, holding polticians in Sacramento and Washington accountable to serve my constituents," Kiley stated.

The two-term Congressman is trying to peel off some independent and Democratic voters. But are primary voters that unsophisticated?

In a social media video explaining his reasoning, Kiley said that all local California officeholders run as nonpartisans. While it is true that elected officials like Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass appear on the ballot without their party registration, does anyone think of them as anything other than partisan Republicans and Democrats, respectively?

Given that Kiley has failed to stem the tide of Proposition 50 gerrymandering, which he blamed on Gov. Newsom but was in fact initiated by President Donald Trump, this maneuver is an interesting wrinkle. Call it the Kiley shuffle - one step to the middle, one step to the right, and another back to the middle.

Will primary voters who tend to be more partisan than general election voters fall for this trick? With the primary less than three months away, and ballots showing up in about two months, expect Kiley to make more appearances on cable political shows to burnish this newfound nonpartisan role, and a slew of TV commercials will convey his rebirth as an independent.

Make no mistake that if Kiley succeeds and is reelected in the 3rd District, he will caucus with Republicans even if he retains his independent label and will be a reliable MAGA supporter. That is as certain as the sun rising in the east.

Kiley's political career is in the fourth quarter of a football game, with the clock ticking down; it's fourth-and-long, so it is time to heave a Hail Mary pass!

Gerrymandering is a plague on democracy, one that Gavin Newsom has brought back to California. But there’s a way we can fight back and protect our democracy from his partisan games: by removing partisanship from the equation. Today, I filed for reelection as “No Party… pic.twitter.com/OhGDzKtPEp

— Kevin Kiley (@KevinKileyCA) March 7, 2026