Kalshi favors Pan, Villegas and Matsui on eve of election

For several months, Elk Grove News has tracked Kalshi prediction markets in California’s 6th, 7th and 22nd congressional districts. At 9 a.m. Monday, Nov. 2, traders favored Richard Pan, Doris Matsui and Randy Villegas — with substantially more uncertainty surrounding Matsui’s race.

The percentages represent approximate chances of winning, based on trading prices. They are neither polling results nor predicted vote shares, and they can change as traders buy and sell.

6th District: Pan strongly favored over Kiley

Rep. Kevin Kiley, who represents the 3rd District, faces Democrat Richard Pan, a pediatrician and former state senator. Kiley chose the newly drawn 6th District after Proposition 50 reshaped the congressional map to benefit Democrats, then dropped his Republican registration to run without a party affiliation.

The change positioned Kiley to seek broader support in a Democratic-leaning district. He described it as a way to provide an independent voice.

Pan stood at 93.7%, compared with Kiley’s 6.2%. The chart shows sustained confidence in a Democratic victory, rather than a sudden late shift. Because this market resolves by winning party, its pre-primary history should not be read as an assessment of Pan personally.

A separate Republican Party contract appears at 2%; it should not be added to Kiley’s figure. The displayed quotes do not form an exact 100% total.

22nd District: Villegas gains market confidence

Republican Rep. David Valadao faces progressive Democrat Randy Villegas, a college professor and school board trustee. Villegas advanced despite the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s primary endorsement of Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, who finished third. The committee subsequently backed Villegas.

Valadao first entered Congress in 2013, lost reelection in 2018 and returned in 2021. He was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.

Villegas stood at 91.5%, against Valadao’s 8.5%. The Democratic contract’s climb from roughly even odds earlier in the displayed period signals growing confidence in a Democratic pickup, although the chart cannot establish what drove that change.

7th District: Matsui favored, with more room for an upset

The contest between Matsui, 82, and Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, 41, guarantees another Democrat will represent the district but presents a generational choice.

Federal records show Matsui loaned her campaign $5.4 million through Oct. 14. Vang’s campaign subsequently reported another loan bringing that total to $6.9 million.

Matsui outspent Vang approximately 7 to 1 from July through September. Vang countered with organizing, telling CalMatters that more than 900 volunteers had signed up for calls and canvassing.

AIPAC’s influence also has become an issue. Drop Site News reported that groups it identified as AIPAC-aligned reserved $785,000 in anti-Vang advertising. AIPAC disputed attributing such spending to the organization. These independent expenditures are separate from donations to Matsui’s campaign.

Matsui’s 73% puts her clearly ahead, but Vang’s 27% leaves a meaningful upset possibility — a little better than one chance in four. The late movement favors Matsui, without proving that advertising or any other campaign activity caused it.

These snapshots show two strong favorites and a more uncertain third contest. Trading activity can affect prices, and the screenshots do not reveal enough about market depth to assess how easily those prices could move.

Above all, these predictions concern who wins, not the margin of victory. Pan’s 93.7%, for example, does not predict he will receive 93.7% of the vote.

A close count could leave a race unresolved for weeks as California processes eligible ballots after Election Day. Once winners are determined, Elk Grove News will compare the outcomes with these snapshots to see how well the markets anticipated the results.