How credible is the poll showing Kevin Kiley and Richard Pan tied in CA-06?
The Cook Political Report splashes a bucket of cold water on the Independent Leadership Council's findings
Polling data for two of California's hottest congressional races, for the 6th and 7th districts, is scant, so when a seemingly independent poll - not one from a campaign - becomes available, it generates attention.
Such was the case when the Sacramento Bee recently reported that polling data show the race between Rep. Kevin Kiley and Dr. Richard Pan was even. Their data came from the Independent Leadership Council.
The Bee reported:
Rep. Kevin Kiley and former Democratic state Sen. Richard Pan are virtually tied in the race for the Sacramento region's 6th Congressional District, according to a new poll by a group backing Kiley.
The key word here was "according" to a group backing Kiley. Essentially, this was internal campaign polling - a push poll, if you will - to create the impression the race is tied.
Rather than rely on a poll from a group tied to former West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who has bought into Kiley's independence claim, we looked at a more reliable gauge. That source is the well-regarded University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
As of today, the Center for Politics rates CA-06 as "likely Democrat." According to their Crystal Ball, UVA has the following ratings:
| Rating | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Safe Democratic/Republican | Analysts see hardly any chance the favored side will lose. |
| Likely Democratic/Republican | The favored side is a clear favorite, but an upset remains possible. |
| Leans Democratic/Republican | One side is favored, but the outcome is less certain. |
| Toss-up | The outcome is too uncertain to favor either side. |
While UVA rates the race as "likely Democrat," the other well-respected rating service, The Cook Political Report, splashes a bucket of cold water on the Independent Leadership Council's finding.
Cook's rates CA-06 as "Solid Democrat" - its highest rating. CA-06 is one of 185 seats it rates in this category. The report lists 182 seats as "Solid Republican."
While these rating services are more favorable to Pan, Kiley and the PAC's supporting his reelection bid are wasting no resources in painting the former State Senator and Assembly member in the worst light. From Pan's perspective, they have a constant drumbeat of messaging tying the former Republican as a Trump-supporting MAGA congress member - not a good association with Trump's historically low approval numbers.
It will be worth watching whether UVA and Cook's moves move the dial in this race, which is growing more negative by the day.
