A Weighty Decision for Congressman Kevin Kiley - 5 or 6?
This week, Kiley publicly eliminated several districts from his list of those in which he will not run for office
One of the more interesting political stories in the Sacramento region this year involves 3rd District Congressman Kevin Kiley. As one of the Republicans explicitly targeted by Proposition 50, the 3rd District, which had a Republican registration advantage, was split into seven districts, stripping Kiley and any Republican candidate of that advantage.
Mr. Kiley, who lives in Rocklin, has already said he will not seek reelection in the 3rd District. That decision was likely prompted by Democratic Congressman Ami Bera's switch from the suburban Sacramento's 6th District, which now has a Democratic registration advantage.
Early on in his political career in the 7th District, Bera proved his ability to scratch out victories in hard-fought races. One of those races was when he booted out incumbent Republican Congressman Dan Lungren in 2012.
This week, Kiley publicly eliminated several districts from his list of those in which he will not run for office. According to a report from SouthTahoeNow.com, Kiley has narrowed his choice to the 5th and 6th Districts.
Both of these races will be interesting watch for slightly different reasons.
If Kiley runs in the 5th District, his main opponent in the June primary will be fellow Republican Congressman Tom McClintock, a fixture in California politics for decades. Will Kiley try to maintain the more moderate position he has recently cultivated, or run to the right of McClintock in the heavily Republican District?
A campaign for the 6th District, which is now an open seat, will set up an intriguing race. There are currently two viable Republicans and five Democratic candidates, with former State Senator Dr. Richard Pan and Sacramento District Attorney Thien Ho receiving top billing among Democrats.
If Kiley enters the race, will the two other Republicans drop out? Likewise, would Kiley's entry put pressure on the Democratic machine to push out a couple of candidates in the name of party unity and to improve the party's chances of fulfilling the original goal of Proposition 50?
There are countless scenarios of what effect a Kiley 6th District candidacy would have on existing candidates. If Kiley jumps into that race, there will undoubtedly be a ripple effect on several candidates, and party bigwigs will apply pressure on less viable candidates to drop out.
Kiley must decide about a month from now where he will run. Regardless of where Kilet runs, he will be in for the fight of his political life.
In the 6th District, each party's ability to clear the field ahead of the June primary will likely determine which two candidates, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the November general election.
